The security of the Republic of Moldova in the context of the conflict in Ukraine: realities and perspectives [Articol]

Abstract

The war launched by the Russian Federation against Ukraine represents the most consequential military conflict in Europe since the end of World War II, generating profound political, economic, and security repercussions across the region. For the Republic of Moldova, the impact of the war is twofold: it has amplified existing vulnerabilities—particularly regarding the unresolved Transnistrian conflict, economic fragilities, energy dependence, and social pressures—while simultaneously opening new opportunities for European integration and geopolitical reorientation. The article examines the security implications arising from the increased militarization and hybrid activities in the Transnistrian region, including the risks associated with the Cobasna ammunition depot and the presence of Russian and paramilitary forces. Economically, Moldova has faced disrupted supply chains, inflationary pressures, and rising energy costs, yet also experienced growth in exports and revitalised transport routes. The energy crisis accelerated Moldova’s strategic shift toward the European energy system, reducing dependence on Russian-controlled infrastructure. On the sociopolitical level, the refugee influx tested institutional capacities but also strengthened EU-Moldova cooperation. The granting of EU candidate status in June 2022 marks a critical window of opportunity, positioning the Republic of Moldova on a transformative European trajectory despite persistent security challenges.