Cercetarea intențiilor și motivațiilor de emigrare: aspecte metodologice, delimitări conceptuale și evoluții în timp (cazul Republicii Moldova) [Articol]

Abstract

The present study is conducted within the framework of a bilateral project involving the Republic of Moldova and Turkey and focuses on studying the motivations underlying youth emi gration, analyzing current emigration trends, and exploring the future perspectives and aspira tions of young emigrants. Within this framework, the study contributes to the development of an innovative adaptive predictive system aimed at estimating the probability of youth emigration in the two states. This study aims to analyze how the emigration decision-making process is addressed in the specialized literature and reflected in existing migration theories, through a theoretical–concep tual analysis based on a critical review of the relevant literature. Special attention is paid to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The theory conceptua lizes intention as the result of cognitive and social evaluations made by the individual before the action. The model it proposes can be used in the analysis of almost any conscious behavior. In order to explain behavior, not just predict it, the theory of planned behavior focuses on the ante cedents of attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. Regarding the reasons for migration, the literature analyzed indicates a constant predo minance of economic factors, such as low-income levels, limited employment opportunities and wage differences compared to destination countries. In parallel, an important role is played by migration for educational purposes, especially among young people, where migration intentions are correlated with the perception of the quality of the educational system, opportunities to study abroad and the possibility of subsequent professional integration. The analysis shows that, in the Republic of Moldova, emigration intentions are most often operationalized as declared availability or attitudinal orientation, and less frequently as part of a structured decision-making process. Measurement approaches typically rely on direct questions or simple indicators, with limited attention to temporal horizons and to the integration of cogniti ve and contextual dimensions. Overall, existing research primarily captures migratory potential, pointing to the need for more comprehensive methodological frameworks to better understand emigration decision-making.