Accelerated urbanisation, rural depopulation, and human capital: policy lessons from the 2024 census [Articol]

Abstract

Purpose of the article: To analyze the main demographic, educational, and territorial characteristics of the population of the Republic of Moldova based on the final results of the 2024 Population and Housing Census (RPL 2024). The study aims to highlight the territorial asymmetries generated by depopulation, aging, and migration processes, and to identify their implications for the sustainability of the country’s social pillar. Methodology: The analysis is based on official census data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS), complemented with regional comparisons and international benchmarks (OECD, Eurostat, UNESCO). Statistical techniques were applied to process, focusing on indicators such as population density, urbanization rate, educational structure, and gender composition. Descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, and graphical visualization were used to examine the correlation between demographic trends and socio-economic indicators such as poverty rate and access to education. The study adopts a mixed-method approach, integrating quantitative data interpretation with qualitative policy assessment. Conclusions: The results confirm a continuous demographic decline of 13.6% between 2014 and 2024, coupled with accelerated urbanization (46.4% urban population) and a concentration of over 29.9% of residents in Chișinău. At the same time, rural regions-especially in the South and North-record the steepest decreases in density and population aging. Education indicators show progress, with the share of higher-education graduates reaching 19.1% and literacy attaining 99.6%, yet spatial disparities remain significant. The findings emphasize the need for balanced territorial development policies aimed at reducing rural depopulation, supporting local education and innovation hubs, and improving connectivity between urban and rural settlements. Ensuring the sustainability of Moldova’s social system requires integrated strategies for demographic resilience, human capital formation, and territorial cohesion. Originality: This article provides the first integrated academic interpretation of the RPL 2024 results from a socioeconomic and territorial perspective, combining statistical evidence, infographics, and international comparative frameworks to assess Moldova’s demographic and educational transformation with in the broader European context.